{"id":2153,"date":"2013-04-23T13:19:39","date_gmt":"2013-04-23T19:19:39","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/chrisgrundemann.com\/?p=2153"},"modified":"2013-04-23T13:19:39","modified_gmt":"2013-04-23T19:19:39","slug":"ipv4-free-pool-depletion-arin-projection","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/chrisgrundemann.com\/index.php\/2013\/ipv4-free-pool-depletion-arin-projection\/","title":{"rendered":"IPv4 Free Pool Depletion at ARIN &#8211; A New Projection"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Long time IPv4 observer and prognosticator <a title=\"Tony Hain\" href=\"http:\/\/www.tndh.net\/~tony\/\" target=\"_blank\">Tony Hain<\/a> has just published a new report on ARINs IPv4 free pool with a new projection for exhaustion. Titled &#8220;<a href=\"http:\/\/tndh.net\/~tony\/ietf\/ARIN-runout-projection.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">Thoughts on the ARIN burn rate projections<\/a>,&#8221; the report looks at a fairly recent rush of what are apparently new (to ARIN) organizations in &#8220;<a title=\"ARIN Slow Start (policy)\" href=\"https:\/\/www.arin.net\/policy\/nrpm.html#four214\" target=\"_blank\">slow start<\/a>&#8221; (31 organizations which are almost all doubling or more every couple of months), as well as more established ARIN members who have come to the trough multiple times in the past 9 months (some receiving fairly large allocations), and weights these newer allocations more heavily than historical data. The result is captured in what may be a startling graph to many, at the end of the report:<\/p>\n<p><iframe id=\"doc_39530\" src=\"http:\/\/www.scribd.com\/embeds\/137599179\/content?start_page=1&amp;view_mode=scroll\" height=\"400\" width=\"100%\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" data-auto-height=\"false\" data-aspect-ratio=\"undefined\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>No, you&#8217;re not seeing things, that green projection line hits zero around mid August &#8211; of this year!<\/p>\n<p>I asked Tony about how he developed the projection and he was kind enough to fill me in on some more detail:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>1\/today-first_of_each_month to create a weighting that decays historically<br \/>\nUse that as a modifier to the actual rate of change for each month, then<br \/>\nforecast based on the result.<\/p>\n<p>Just taking the historical data and running the 6th order polynomial<br \/>\nprojection:<br \/>\ny = -3E-15x^6 + 8E-10x^5 &#8211; 9E-05x^4 + 4.7537x^3 &#8211; 146718x^2 + 2E+09x &#8211; 2E+13<br \/>\ncreates an almost identical curve, that hits zero a few days earlier.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>I&#8217;m not one to say that <a title=\"IPv4 \u2013 Is the sky falling?\" href=\"http:\/\/chrisgrundemann.com\/index.php\/2011\/ipv4-sky-falling\/\" target=\"_blank\">the sky is falling<\/a>, but I think that everyone watching IPv4 exhaustion &#8211; everyone who depends on the IPv4 Internet for that matter &#8211; should pay attention as this trend starts to play out over the next several weeks. In fact, the <a title=\"ARIN IPv4 Countdown Plan\" href=\"https:\/\/www.arin.net\/resources\/request\/ipv4_countdown.html\" target=\"_blank\">ARIN IPv4 counter<\/a> has dropped from about 2.9 \/8s available to just over 2.4 \/8s available over the course of this week alone&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Long time IPv4 observer and prognosticator Tony Hain has just <a href=\"https:\/\/chrisgrundemann.com\/index.php\/2013\/ipv4-free-pool-depletion-arin-projection\/\"> &#8230;<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[2,9,26],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2153","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-arin","category-internet","category-tech-policy"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>IPv4 Free Pool Depletion at ARIN - A New Projection ~ Chris Grundemann<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/chrisgrundemann.com\/index.php\/2013\/ipv4-free-pool-depletion-arin-projection\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"IPv4 Free Pool Depletion at ARIN - A New Projection ~ Chris Grundemann\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Long time IPv4 observer and prognosticator Tony Hain has just ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/chrisgrundemann.com\/index.php\/2013\/ipv4-free-pool-depletion-arin-projection\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Chris Grundemann\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/chris.grundemann\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2013-04-23T19:19:39+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/chrisgrundemann.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/IMG_4488-scaled.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1587\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"2560\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"~Chris\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@https:\/\/twitter.com\/ChrisGrundemann\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@ChrisGrundemann\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"~Chris\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/chrisgrundemann.com\\\/index.php\\\/2013\\\/ipv4-free-pool-depletion-arin-projection\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/chrisgrundemann.com\\\/index.php\\\/2013\\\/ipv4-free-pool-depletion-arin-projection\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"~Chris\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/chrisgrundemann.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/16a6af2797267c7d91f29876d5a0870f\"},\"headline\":\"IPv4 Free Pool Depletion at ARIN &#8211; 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